Maritime Chokepoints Source Register

UNCLASSIFIED//OPEN SOURCE

See Source Registers hub and Documentation Index.

Source Register ID: WI-SOURCE-REGISTER-MARITIME-2026-0001

Prepared UTC: 2026-06-18T03:29:19Z

Information cutoff UTC: 2026-06-18T10:25:19Z

Source base: Official canal, port, maritime, commercial shipping, insurance, multilateral, research, and media source families for Red Sea/Suez, Hormuz, Malacca/Singapore, Panama, Black Sea, and Arctic lanes.

Analytic confidence: High for source-family routing and boundary rules. Moderate for current chokepoint conditions because live movement, market pricing, and incident data require dated product-level refreshes.

Purpose: Organize source families for maritime chokepoint analysis across Red Sea/Suez, Hormuz, Malacca/Singapore, Panama, Black Sea, and Arctic lanes.

Boundary: This register supports strategic open-source research only. It does not provide recommendations, route selection, vessel movement detail, operational planning, escort guidance, targeting support, or tactical instructions.

Use Rules

Separate official, multilateral, industry, research, and media sources.
Treat canal and port statistics as infrastructure data, not proof of motive for individual commercial decisions.
Treat insurance and broker reporting as commercial-market evidence, not as official government assessment.
Keep live movement data, sensitive operational details, and route-selection logic out of WARLOCK-INDEX products.
Create dated source packets when a chokepoint lane gains enough sources for high-confidence analysis.

Reported U.S.-Iran MOU And Strait Of Hormuz Source-Treatment Lane

Source class: C until official source text is retrieved
Publishers: Axios; The Guardian; Financial Times; New York Post; MarketWatch/JPMorgan; Bloomberg source family as apparent publication route pending direct capture
Accessed UTC: 2026-06-18T10:09:45Z
URLs:
https://www.axios.com/2026/06/17/read-full-us-iran-deal-memorandum-understanding
https://www.axios.com/2026/06/17/iran-deal-signing-text-release
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/17/trump-us-iran-war-mou-deal
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/jun/17/middle-east-war-iran-israel-us-donald-trump-hezbollah-lebanon-peace-deal-netanyahu-latest-news-updated
https://www.ft.com/content/d4f89b6b-c213-4550-924b-a9ae45e24c37
https://nypost.com/2026/06/17/us-news/complete-14-point-us-iran-peace-deal-finally-revealed-by-trump-administration-read-text-in-full/
https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-s-p-500-nasdaq-dow-federal-reserve-meeting-interest-rate-decision-14-point-plan/card/the-market-is-still-betting-oil-supply-could-normalize-quickly-after-mou-leaked-says-jpmorgan-0D6iKX4fQJ0kxzy1VP0R
Use: Current-event source-treatment lane for reported Strait of Hormuz access terms, U.S. blockade-removal language, oil-export waiver claims, possible toll/free-passage disputes, commercial-market reaction, signed-status reporting, immediate-effect claims, and the need for official implementation capture. WARLOCK-INDEX routes these claims through both the U.S.-Iran MOU implementation-capture packet and the Strait of Hormuz strategic chokepoint packet.
Reliability note: Axios provides transcript reporting attributed to a senior administration official, not a released official U.S. text. Guardian reporting says both presidents signed the MOU, Iranian state media released text largely tracking the U.S. readout, and Pakistan said the agreement took immediate effect, but Washington still had not formally released a copy online. The 2026-06-18T10:25Z implementation-gap capture again found no official U.S. text, Treasury/OFAC waiver, Federal Register notice, IAEA/UN record, IMO notice, or directly captured Iranian/Pakistani official text. Treasury/OFAC, State, Iranian official, mediator, IMO, Gulf-state, energy, insurance, and shipping evidence are required before implementation or legal claims are strengthened.

Strait Of Hormuz Strategic Chokepoint Source Family

Source class: Mixed A/B/C source family
Publishers: EIA; UN/UNCLOS; UNCTAD; Allianz Commercial; ODNI; Axios/Guardian/MarketWatch current-event reporting; Gulf, Iranian, Omani, IMO, Treasury/OFAC, State, shipping, and insurance source families queued
Accessed UTC: 2026-06-18T03:29:19Z
URLs:
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=4430
https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/special-topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints
https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/part3.htm
https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/part2.htm
https://unctad.org/publication/review-maritime-transport-2024
https://commercial.allianz.com/news-and-insights/reports/shipping-safety.html
Use: Strategic source family for Hormuz energy-flow exposure, legal source routing, traffic-separation and transit-passage source questions, insurance/commercial risk, reported MOU access/toll/blockade-removal claims, Gulf and Iranian issuer positions, and official implementation follow-on.
Reliability note: EIA and UNCLOS provide strong structural and legal source anchors, but EIA's captured Today in Energy page is historical. Current traffic, insurance, toll, reopening, sanctions-waiver, and maritime administration claims require dated official, multilateral, industry, and Gulf/Iranian issuer-source capture.

Core Red Sea / Suez Sources

UN Security Council Resolution 2722: Red Sea Maritime Security

Source class: A
Publisher: United Nations Security Council
Publication date: 2024-01-10
Accessed UTC: 2026-06-13T05:20:00Z
URL: https://undocs.org/S/RES/2722(2024)
Use: Legal-diplomatic baseline for the Security Council response to attacks against merchant and commercial vessels in the Red Sea, including freedom-of-navigation and commercial-vessel security framing.
Reliability note: Authoritative for resolution text and diplomatic record. It does not independently quantify attack tempo, commercial loss, or military operations.

Council Of The European Union Launch Of EUNAVFOR ASPIDES

Source class: A
Publisher: Council of the European Union
Publication date: 2024-02-19
Accessed UTC: 2026-06-13T05:20:00Z
URL: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2024/02/19/security-and-freedom-of-navigation-in-the-red-sea-council-launches-eunavfor-aspides/
Use: Allied and multilateral source for the European Union maritime security response to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and adjacent approaches.
Reliability note: Authoritative for EU Council public framing and mandate language. It is not an incident dataset or operational record.

UNCTAD Review Of Maritime Transport 2024

Source class: A
Publisher: United Nations Trade and Development
Publication date: 2024-10-22
Accessed UTC: 2026-06-13T05:20:00Z
URL: https://unctad.org/publication/review-maritime-transport-2024
Use: Multilateral source for chokepoint vulnerability, Red Sea and Suez disruption, freight-rate effects, ton-mile demand, insurance costs, port congestion, emissions, and vulnerable-economy exposure.
Reliability note: Authoritative for UNCTAD public analysis and data presentation. It contains policy language; WARLOCK-INDEX uses it for data and framing without adopting recommendations.

Source class: A
Publisher: Suez Canal Authority
Publication date: Annual reports for 2024 and 2025
Accessed UTC: 2026-06-13T05:20:00Z
URL: https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx
Use: Official canal-operator source for vessel counts, net tonnage, monthly traffic, ship-type distribution, cargo direction, and annual navigation report downloads.
Reliability note: Authoritative for Suez Canal Authority public statistics. Canal traffic does not independently prove shipper motive, insurance pricing, revenue effects, or final cargo delay.

Federal Register Executive Order 14175: Designation Of Ansar Allah

Source class: A
Publisher: Federal Register / Executive Office of the President
Publication date: 2025-01-31
Accessed UTC: 2026-06-13T05:20:00Z
URL: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/31/2025-02103/designation-of-ansar-allah-as-a-foreign-terrorist-organization
Use: Public U.S. legal and policy framing for Ansar Allah, including designation context, Iran support language, Red Sea disruption, commercial vessel pressure, and global maritime-trade effects.
Reliability note: Authoritative for the published executive order and Federal Register metadata. It is legal and policy framing, not neutral independent intelligence assessment.

ODNI Annual Threat Assessment 2026

Source class: A
Publisher: Office of the Director of National Intelligence
Publication date: 2026-03
Accessed UTC: 2026-06-13T05:20:00Z
URL: https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2026-Unclassified-Report.pdf
Use: Public Intelligence Community source for Houthi resilience, Red Sea location, coercive leverage, Iran-linked regional network context, and broader strategic threat environment.
Reliability note: Authoritative for public IC assessment framing. It omits sensitive detail and should not be overread for command relationships or operational specifics.

Allianz Commercial Safety And Shipping Review 2025

Source class: B
Publisher: Allianz Commercial
Publication date: May 2025
Accessed UTC: 2026-06-13T05:20:00Z
URL: https://commercial.allianz.com/news-and-insights/reports/shipping-safety.html
Use: Industry source for marine insurance, shipping-loss trends, geopolitical risk, war cover, premium pressure, accumulation risk, and commercial maritime risk.
Reliability note: Specialist insurance-industry source with useful risk framing. It reflects commercial market perspective and should be paired with official or multilateral sources for major judgments.

Comparative Source Families

Chokepoint lane	Priority source families	Current register status	Notes
Red Sea / Suez	UN, EU, ODNI, Federal Register, UNCTAD, Suez Canal Authority, insurance industry	Active source packet exists	Strongest current WARLOCK-INDEX lane
South China Sea / West Philippine Sea	DoD 2025, PCA, State Limits in the Seas, Philippines official sources, PRC issuer sources, NAMRIA, NGA/USINDOPACOM, allied statements, shipping/economic sources for later trade context	Active map packet and coercion/legal-source packet exist	Legal/coercion source lane is active; trade, energy, fisheries, and insurance context remains follow-on
Strait of Hormuz	Axios/Guardian/MarketWatch current-event reporting for reported MOU lane; EIA, IEA, ODNI, State, Treasury, Gulf official sources, IMO, insurance industry	Active source-treatment note, U.S.-Iran MOU implementation-capture packet, U.S.-Iran MOU implementation-gap capture, and Strait of Hormuz strategic chokepoint source packet	Needed for Iran maritime, energy exposure, oil waiver, sanctions, and Hormuz access analysis
Malacca / Singapore	Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, ASEAN, UNCTAD, EIA/IEA, port authorities, insurance industry	Queue	Needed for Indo-Pacific trade, energy, and logistics concentration
Panama Canal	Panama Canal Authority, UNCTAD, climate agencies, trade datasets, insurance industry	Queue	Needed for climate-infrastructure and canal-capacity analysis
Black Sea	UN, Turkey, Ukraine, Russia, NATO, EU, grain and insurance sources	Queue	Needed for Russia-Ukraine maritime and food-security analysis
Arctic maritime routes	DoD Arctic Strategy, Canada, Norway, NATO, NORAD, Arctic Council sources, UNCTAD, insurance industry	Partial through Arctic products	Needs dedicated maritime transit and infrastructure packet

Extraction Fields

Field	Why it matters	Example source family	Boundary
Legal-diplomatic framing	Establishes public international response and mandate language	UN, EU, national governments	No legal advice or operational authority inference
Canal and port statistics	Provides infrastructure traffic baseline	SCA, Panama Canal Authority, port authorities	No vessel-level movement analysis
Commercial shipping effects	Shows schedule, cost, ton-mile, and flow pressure	UNCTAD, shipping analytics	No route or commercial decision guidance
Insurance effects	Tracks risk pricing and confidence	Allianz, IUMI, Lloyd's-linked sources, P&I clubs	No proprietary data extraction or insurer advice
Actor pressure	Links state or nonstate behavior to chokepoint effects	ODNI, State, Treasury, UN, allied sources	No targeting or tactical analysis
Humanitarian logistics	Shows effects on aid, food security, and vulnerable economies	UN OCHA, WFP, IMO, NGOs	No movement planning
Energy and commodities	Tracks exposure for oil, LNG, grain, fertilizer, and fuels	EIA, IEA, UNCTAD, official energy sources	No market recommendations