Standard Global Tradecraft docs/standards/product-standard.md

Product Standard

This standard defines the minimum structure for WARLOCK-INDEX analytical products. It is designed to keep the repository useful to defense researchers and decision-support readers while p...

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UNCLASSIFIED//OPEN SOURCE

Standard ID: WI-STD-001

Prepared UTC: 2026-06-12T23:20:35Z

Purpose

This standard defines the minimum structure for WARLOCK-INDEX analytical products. It is designed to keep the repository useful to defense researchers and decision-support readers while preventing drift into unsupported claims, policy advocacy, or operational instruction.

Required Header Fields

Every assessment must include:

  • Classification: Always UNCLASSIFIED//OPEN SOURCE unless a future approved public-release label is more specific.
  • Handling: Public open-source research.
  • Product ID: Stable identifier using the format WI-ASMT-AREA-YEAR-NNNN.
  • Prepared UTC: ISO 8601 timestamp.
  • Information cutoff UTC: ISO 8601 timestamp for the latest information reflected in the product.
  • Scope: What the product covers.
  • Exclusions: What it deliberately does not cover.
  • Source base: Short source summary with full source list at the end.
  • Analytic confidence: High, moderate, or low.

Analytic Confidence

  • High: Multiple reliable sources converge; core facts are official, directly observable, or otherwise well corroborated.
  • Moderate: Main judgment is supported, but source recency, access, or interpretation leaves meaningful uncertainty.
  • Low: Sparse, contested, rapidly changing, or indirectly sourced evidence.

Confidence is not a measure of importance. It is a measure of evidentiary strength, source quality, and analytic stability.

Estimative Language

Use consistent probability language:

  • Almost certainly: very high likelihood.
  • Likely: strong likelihood.
  • Probably: more likely than not.
  • May or could: plausible but uncertain.
  • Unclear: evidence is insufficient or contradictory.

Avoid false precision. Do not assign numeric probabilities unless the source itself provides a defensible basis.

Required Assessment Sections

Assessment products should normally include:

  • Bottom line.
  • Key judgments.
  • Scope and information cutoff.
  • Strategic context.
  • Evidence and analysis.
  • Indicators to monitor.
  • Information gaps.
  • Source base.

Prohibited Content

WARLOCK-INDEX products must not include:

  • Recommendations for U.S. or allied action.
  • Target packages, target prioritization, or target selection.
  • Weapons employment procedures.
  • Tactical instructions for military, cyber, intelligence, or covert activity.
  • Exploit steps, evasion methods, or instructions to bypass security controls.
  • Classified, leaked, personal, or otherwise improperly obtained information.
  • Unsupported claims presented as fact.

Revision Practice

Do not silently overwrite major judgments. If a product changes materially, create a new dated product or add a clearly labeled revision note explaining what changed, why it changed, and what source base caused the change.